Red States now outnumber Blue States in Gallup polling

Gallup's newest analysis of party affiliation finds that 20 states are solidly Republican or leaning Republican, compared with 14 solidly Democratic or leaning Democratic states. The remaining 16 are competitive.

This 2015 measurement marks the first time in Gallup's eight years of tracking partisanship by state that there have been more Republican than Democratic states. According to Gallup, it also marks a dramatic shift from 2008, when Democratic strength nationally was its greatest in recent decades.

In 2008, with President George W. Bush suffering from low job approval ratings as a result of the recession and the ongoing war in Iraq, Gallup classified 35 states as solidly Democratic or Democratic leaning, compared with only five solidly or leaning Republican states.

Jeffrey M. Jones of Gallup writes that the gradual shift toward a Red State majority accelerated last year:

“In all, 13 states' political classifications changed between 2014 and 2015, with 11 of these shifting in a more Republican direction. The Democrats lost three states -- Maine, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- each of which moved from Democratic-leaning to competitive.

“Meanwhile, Republicans gained five states -- New Hampshire, West Virginia, Missouri, South Carolina and Texas -- all moving from competitive to leaning or solidly Republican. Additionally, Alaska and Oklahoma shifted from leaning Republican to being solidly Republican, and Delaware from being solidly Democratic to leaning Democratic.

“Nebraska and New Mexico are the two states that moved in a more Democratic direction, though Nebraska remains in the Republican column, shifting from solidly Republican to leaning Republican. New Mexico moved from a leaning Democratic state to a solid one.

“Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Florida are the most evenly balanced states politically, with less than one point separating Democratic and Republican Party preferences in those states. These states have been among the most highly contested ‘swing states’ in recent presidential elections.”

It’s important to note that, though the GOP lays claim to a greater number of states, Democrats continue to hold an edge nationally in partisanship. That’s because many of the most populous states, including California, New York and Illinois, are Democratically aligned. 

Setting aside the category of independent, in 2015 Gallup Daily tracking data, 43 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with 40 percent identifying as Republican or leaning Republican.