As a whole, county votes added up to presidential choices that defied the traditional Democratic or Republican patterns demonstrated in many parts of the nation. But Macomb’s unpredictable voting habits have always been the product of a confounding mix of geography and demographics.
And that’s never been more true than in this election year.
A recent study of the voting records of the 148 state legislators in Lansing found that the most conservative senator and the most liberal representative both hail from Macomb County. How is that possible?
State Sen. Jack Brandenburg, a Harrison Township Republican, tied for the most rightward senator in the analysis by Inside Michigan Politics. Rep. Sarah Roberts of St. Clair Shores and one of her Democratic colleagues equally leaned left more than any other state House members.
Consider this: These two legislators represent adjacent districts and live less than 10 miles apart. How could this be?
Well, the manner in which Macomb County was carved up by the GOP majority in Lansing to create Senate and House districts represents part of the story.
Brandenburg’s Senate district encompasses most of the conservative areas of north Macomb. Roberts’ territory serves as one of those House districts (St. Clair Shores and Eastpointe) where Republican strategists packed as many south Macomb Democrats as possible into one district.
In fact, most county voters will have little to choose from on Tuesday when they reach the portion of their ballot that offers Senate and House candidates. Of the 14 seats up for grabs in Macomb for the two houses of the Legislature, only three or four are competitive.
At the same time, in the big picture of a countywide vote, the Macomb County electorate, with its many independents and ticket-splitters, has swayed back and forth in presidential elections, voting for Ronald Reagan twice, George H.W. Bush two times, once for Clinton (in 1996), once for Al Gore, one time for George W. Bush, and two times for Barack Obama.
That’s a lot shifting between the two parties but that’s what makes us a barometer of America – in the last nine presidential elections we have voted in sync with the nation eight times.
Yet, take a closer look at the different pieces of the Macomb County puzzle and the picture looks much different. Most county voters live in areas where the elections for state House and Senate consist of a Democrat or a Republican who is the prohibitive favorite, running against a nominee from the opposite party whose status ranges from underfunded underdog to token candidate.
For more than two decades, the county’s political landscape has been divided into three tiers: south of 14 Mile Road is dominated by the Democrats; north of Hall Road is pretty solid GOP territory; and the battleground is in the middle, in the central Macomb communities between 14 Mile and Hall Road.
When Macomb GOP Chairman Rob Montilla said the other day that, of the 13 seats on the Board of Commissioners, the five in that center area are “in play,” he stated the obvious. Nonetheless, he was sharply criticized by a frustrated Republican challenger from south Macomb who thought that the party chairman had undermined his candidacy for commissioner.
For an even closer look, consider the demographics of Clinton Township, which is in many ways a microcosm of the county.
The north end of the township, populated by many white-collar professionals, features luxury subdivisions, gated communities, and an upscale mall. The center tier is middle class, dominated by brick ranches, two-story colonials, and strip malls. The south end, with a racially diverse population of blue collar types and the working poor, mostly consists of modest homes, tiny residential lots, and small shops and factories.
All of this within a community of about 30 square miles. In Clinton Township, the neighborhoods along Millar Road are solid Red. About two miles away, just south of 15 Mile Road, those areas are deep Blue.
So, with just two days until the election, figuring out the “Macomb County voter” remains especially challenging and compelling when, even within a single city or township, we have conflicting pockets of partisan kinship.
When you stir together all the ingredients in this strange stew of political leanings, the swing voters in the middle often provide the spice that produces distinctive results, with the two parties alternately gaining and losing at the state and county level.
At one point a few years ago, an exasperated political analyst said of one Macomb County vote, “It was a funky election.”
On Election Day 2014, Macomb will play a key role in deciding the big Michigan races for governor and U.S. senator. But don’t expect a neat and tidy conclusion.
For four decades, the county electorate has consistently supported Democrats for the Senate and typically backed Republicans for governor.
How can that be?
It’s a mystery. Go ahead, Macomb County voters – on Tuesday keep us guessing. Make our day.
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