Michigan will be swing state in 2016

Based on the 2008 numbers vs. the 2012 numbers, Michigan may regain its status as a swing state in 2016.

According to an analysis of Nov. 6 election figures by The Fix blog, Michigan experienced the 12^th biggest shift toward Republicans and away from the Democratic president among the 50 states. That is based on an Obama win here with 58.4 percent of the vote in ’08 vs. 54.8 percent this year – a 3.6 percent reduction. The fact that Mitt Romney was considered a Michigan favorite son may have influenced that 12^th place spot on the list.

Michigan entered 2012 as a Blue State but bounced in and out of the category of a swing state, or battleground state. The numbers used by The Fix came from the highly respected Cook Political Report, which lists Michigan as one of 12 swing states in 2012.

Here’s how the Fix sums it up:

“Republicans are trying to put states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in play, while Democrats would very much like to do the same with Arizona and Georgia. And the results in all four states suggest things are headed in the right direction for that. Michigan experienced the 12th biggest shift toward Republicans, while Pennsylvania had the 19th biggest. And on the other side, Arizona was (9^th on the  list of states growing more loyal) to Obama, and Georgia was the 20^th …”

Btw: Though Florida’s margins of victory for Obama were small in ’08 and ’12, the Sunshine State has posted its first back-to-back win for the Democrats since the 1940s. The growing Hispanic community, and an evolving Cuban voting bloc, is certainly a factor.

Republicans could be in serious trouble if Florida, the biggest electoral prize among the swing states, moves somewhat solidly into the Blue State category.