The newest poll from Gallup, the organization that chose
the undecided voters who will participate in tonight’s presidential town hall
debate, shows Mitt Romney with a 50 percent to 46 percent edge over President
Obama among likely voters.
While Romney's four-point advantage is not statistically
significant, according to Gallup, the Republican nominee has consistently edged
ahead of incumbent Obama in each of the past several days in Gallup's seven-day
rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior
to that debate -- regarded
as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it
-- Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723
likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters. What it shows is
that Obama is lagging significantly behind his standing at this time in 2008
among Southerners, professionals with post-graduate degrees and middle-aged
voters.
The chart below shows that, compared with Obama’s 2008
race against John McCain, the president’s support is down the most among voters
in the South, 30- to 49-year-olds, those with four-year college degrees,
postgraduates, men, and Protestants. He has also slipped modestly among whites,
Easterners, women, and Catholics.
You've definitely got a nice piece here, but the one statistic that really jumps out at me is that Mitt Romney is leading among whites by more than 20 points and currently has 61% of them behind him. With the immigration debate destroying any chance of the contending for the hispanic vote, Mitt must capture at least 60% of the white vote to win the election. If he doesn't, it's nearly statistically impossible to come out on top.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, I would also say that like every election, Ohio is going to be the big decider. I've written a nice little piece about this very issue on my own blog.
Still, regardless of what happens, Republicans will have to put up a good showing in Senate races around the country to have any chance of pushing their agenda through.