Schuette, Miller neck-and-neck in 2018 governor’s race

Term-limited Attorney General Bill Schuette and retiring Congresswoman Candice Miller are virtually tied in a new poll that questioned voters about potential candidates for governor in 2018.

In the Republican primary contest, Schuette posted 21 percent support and Miller, a Harrison Township Republican, took 20 percent in an automated survey for Inside Michigan Politics by Target Insyght. Lt. Gov. Brian Calley had 11 percent and state Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof (R-West Olive) managed 3 percent, with 45 percent of voters undecided.

Schuette has made it fairly clear that he wants to run for governor in two years. But Miller’s interest in the job, which never amounted to more than keeping the door open to such a prospect, seems to be waning.

Susan Demas, editor and publisher of IMP, suggested that Calley’s close alliance with Gov. Rick Snyder, who is term-limited, may be hurting the lieutenant governor’s standing as Snyder faces brutal criticism from across the nation due to his handling of the Flint water crisis.

"(The LG) is a distant third to Attorney General Bill Schuette, who's the top pick of conservative voters, and Candice Miller, the clear choice of establishment GOP voters," Demas said.

"Legislative leaders always want to make the leap to statewide office, but I don't see a path for an Arlan Meekhof victory," said Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght. "It's not clear that Candice Miller is running -- but if she does, she'll be a force to be reckoned with."

In the Democratic primary, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan led with 20 percent, even though he has said he's not interested in pursuing the governor’s mansion in 2018. Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) garnered 16 percent, Congressman Dan Kildee (D-Flint) received 12 percent and Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel had 9 percent. Some 43 percent of voters were undecided.

"Gretchen Whitmer's aggressive outreach schedule in the last six months has definitely paid off with her second-place finish,” Sarpolus said. “But with more than four in 10 voters undecided, anything can happen."

"Dan Kildee has raised his profile in few months, taking the lead on the Flint water crisis and in getting U.S. veteran Amir Hekmati released from Iran. If Mike Duggan doesn't run, Kildee is in prime position to capture some of his support in metro Detroit -- which is the key area any Democrat needs to win," Demas said. "Mark Hackel clearly has the most crossover appeal, but that's not going to help him win the Democratic primary."