Brandenburg won’t run for Congress, sees Pavlov, not Mitchell, as likely winner

State Sen. Jack Brandenburg announced this afternoon that he will not run for the congressional seat being vacated by Congresswoman Candice Miller, but it was the things he did not say in his statement that were most newsworthy.

The Harrison Township Republican was once viewed as the instant frontrunner for the 10th Congressional District seat if he entered the race -- based in part on an Inside Michigan Politics poll -- but his declaration today that was declining to run was rather lacking in detail:  

“Due to two reasons, one personal and one professional, I will not be a candidate for the United States Congress in 2016. This was one of the most difficult decisions I have ever had to make. I would like to give a heartfelt thanks to all of the people who offered help and support in this endeavor. Your kindness will always be appreciated.”

What he didn’t say in that statement, and what is quite revealing, is that the sometimes-miserable existence of a member of Congress played a major role in his decision.

Brandenburg would love for the continuation of his current lifestyle – state senator, small business owner, living on the Lake St. Clair waterfront in a lavish home, avid boater. But term limits will end his Senate service in two years and a seat in Congress would mean constant traveling back and forth between Washington and his home district, which stretches from northern Macomb County to the tip of the Thumb Area.

Though Brandenburg said he has overcome a prior fear of flying, in between, in mid-week, he would likely be living in cramped quarters near Capitol Hill.

“The lifestyle was a factor in my decision,” he said. “I didn’t want to be living out of my office or … in a tiny apartment.

“ … After 10 months of reflection, if you can’t pull the trigger, maybe the Lord’s trying to tell you something … maybe this gig isn’t for me.”

From a purely political standpoint, Brandenburg’s assessment of the 10th District race is the biggest news to come out of his announcement.

But first, the crowd of Macomb County candidates that was initially anticipated, due to the county’s centerpiece of voters and political activities, has not materialized. In fact, former state Sen. Alan Sanborn of Richmond Township and a darkhorse contender, Shelby Township Treasurer Michael Flynn, are the only Macomb candidates in the race as the filing deadline approaches.

As for Brandenburg’s assessment, he has no immediate plans to endorse a candidate but he is very high on the candidacy of his GOP Senate colleague, Phil Pavlov of St. Clair County.

“Pavlov is looking pretty strong. I … would say that at this point he is the frontrunner and it’s his race to lose.”

That projection contrasts with conventional political wisdom that Paul Mitchell is the favorite to win the August GOP primary in the heavily Republican 10th District after he snagged the operational/strategic support of two of incumbent congresswoman Miller’s top aides, Jamie Roe and Don Brown.

Pavlov

Mitchell

Of course, Mitchell’s greatest weakness is that he is viewed as a carpetbagger in the 10th District and has held a variety of political jobs, including various election candidacies, in just a few years.

Last week, Mitchell announced more than 100 endorsements for his congressional bid. Brandenburg scoffs at the list and suggests 10th District voters should get up to speed on Mitchell’s only experience in elective office – a stint on the St. Clair City Council which quickly resulted in his resignation after he publicly sparred with his council colleagues.

“I think he should know,” Brandenburg said, “that the United States Congress is a much tougher playing field than the St. Clair City Council.”