The Republican Party clearly has Trump problem on their
hands as The Donald posted a shockingly big lead in the latest ABC News/Washington
Post poll – 24 percent support among GOP voters, more than double every other Republican
candidate in the presidential field except Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who
trails at 13 percent.
But the (still very early) results reveal another problem
if Trump loses the party’s nomination and chooses to run in the 2016 general
election as an independent candidate, as he hinted he might over the weekend.
ABC News explains the main reason for the surge:
“There’s a nativist element to Trump’s support: He’s backed by 38 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who feel that immigrants, overall, mainly weaken U.S. society. That drops to 12 percent among those who say immigrants strengthen this country.
“Another, related result underscores a disconnect for Trump with the public overall, one that may pose a challenge for him in the future. Seventy-four percent of Americans see undocumented immigrants from Mexico as ‘mainly honest people trying to get ahead’ as opposed to ‘mainly undesirable people like criminals.’ Trump, again controversially, has said such immigrants include drug dealers and rapists, while ‘some, I assume, are good people.’”
The ABC/WaPo poll found that in hypothetical general election matchups,
Jeb Bush remains closest to Hillary Clinton, with the Democratic frontrunner
leading by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an
independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent/Clinton-Bush-Trump – with
Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton
advantage into 16 points.
No matter what path the bombastic businessman would take
toward the White House, overall 60 percent of poll respondents of all stripes
said they would not consider voting for Trump in a general election.
Yet, among GOP voters and GOP-leaning independents, Trump’s
support for the party’s nomination has quickly increased six-fold – from just 4
percent in May to 24 percent in the new poll -- since he entered the race and
started bashing fellow Republicans and Hispanics.
ABC News explains the main reason for the surge:
“There’s a nativist element to Trump’s support: He’s backed by 38 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who feel that immigrants, overall, mainly weaken U.S. society. That drops to 12 percent among those who say immigrants strengthen this country.
“Another, related result underscores a disconnect for Trump with the public overall, one that may pose a challenge for him in the future. Seventy-four percent of Americans see undocumented immigrants from Mexico as ‘mainly honest people trying to get ahead’ as opposed to ‘mainly undesirable people like criminals.’ Trump, again controversially, has said such immigrants include drug dealers and rapists, while ‘some, I assume, are good people.’”
Only a small portion of the survey was conducted on
Sunday, after news spread about Trump’s highly charged remarks indicating that
he does not believe Sen. John McCain, who spent 5½ years as a POW in Vietnam is
a war hero.
My favorite stat from the poll results is the one that
shows Trump’s support among college-educated Republican voters skyrocketing.
However, to put that in perspective, Trump's backing has advanced from 1 percent of college
graduates in May to 8 percent today.
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