Could Guam and Puerto Rico decide the GOP presidential nomination?

Tutuila, American Samoa

The Republican presidential primary process has devolved into such a mess that the prospect of the U.S. territories – faraway islands such as Guam and Puerto Rico – deciding the race is now in the realm of possibilities.
With 17 candidates and counting, it’s unlikely that any of the contenders will emerge as a frontrunner or that any of the stragglers will quickly drop out.

Donald Trump, previously viewed by the GOP establishment as a distraction, has taken the lead in two national polls by riding a wave of white conservative anger.

Fox News' control over the first candidate debate in August – and the cable network’s decision that only the top 10 candidates in national polls will appear on their stage – is becoming increasingly untenable for party Chairman Reince Priebus.
And the heated opposition to the debate process by officials and other key figures in the traditional first states to vote – Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – has boiled over.

The Manchester Union Leader, a conservative New Hampshire newspaper that has often played kingmaker in past presidential primaries, has joined with top papers in Iowa and South Carolina to pre-empt the Fox event by hosting their own debate in the Granite State on Aug. 3. All candidates are welcome and, so far, 10 have accepted invitations.  

Into this muck steps Dennis Lennox, a Traverse City-based GOP strategist and commentator, who raises the issue of the territories possibly exerting incredibly outsized influence once the voting begins.

In a guest column written for The Detroit News, Lennox lays out his scenario. A different candidate wins (with less than a majority of the vote) each of the early-state contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. As the campaign trail leads to other states, no candidate can manage a majority in the field of 17, let alone a strong plurality, with only a few exceptions. (Recent polls show all of the contenders below 20 percent and most in single digits.)
At that point, the Republican National Committee’s obscure Rule No. 40 looms large. Lennox points out that a candidate must win a majority in at least eight states in order to be placed into nomination at the 2016 national convention. And the party rules, according to Lennox, treat each territory as the equivalent of a state.

That’s where Lennox sees things getting interesting:

“This creates a situation where the U.S. territories of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands — and not Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — decide who becomes the Republican presidential nominee. Territories and states carry equal weight.

“With candidates seemingly running into each other at every turn, as evident by Christie and Rubio rooming together in New Hampshire over the Independence Day holiday, a smart presidential hopeful could easily run the table in the territories and pull out three victories elsewhere to take the campaign all the way to the convention.

“The rewards of taking to the hustings and rubber-chicken circuit across the territories could outweigh the hassles, especially for a long-shot candidate without the financial means and deep organizational strength to get ahead of the herd on the mainland.”

From there, the prospects become even more absurd, as Lennox explains that voting in each of the territories ranges from several hundred ballots cast to the electorate gathering at a local bar to fulfill their civic duty.