‘Snyder for president’ a ploy, or did the nerd-governor discover GOP’s math problem?

Photo/David Dalton
 

As Gov. Rick Snyder picks out his tux for this weekend's ritzy White Correspondent’s Dinner and launches his out-of-state promotional tour, the question on the lips of every Michigan political pundit and analyst is:
What’s he up to? Could he really be making a run for president?
The conclusion of many is that Snyder is not presidential material – at least on the campaign trail – and there must be some ulterior motive. Perhaps he’s angling for a spot as the Republican running mate of the party’s eventual presidential nominee. Maybe he seeks a Cabinet post if we have a GOP president elected in 2016.

Or, just maybe One Tough Nerd has devised a plan based on the Republican National Committee’s obscure Rule No. 40. (More on that later.)

Susan Demas, an MLive columnist, thrashed the idea of Snyder emerging as a credible contender for the White House.  Here’s a bit of what she wrote on the subject this week:

“Let's be honest. Rick Snyder looks uncomfortable campaigning in his home state and even against just one opponent, which is why he cleverly launched his one-man town hall circuit in 2014.
“… I can't think of a serious presidential rollout that inspired laughter the way Snyder's did (besides birther king Donald Trump). The intro of this story from WDIV -- Detroit's highest-rated TV newscast -- was telling:
"I have talked to political operatives across the state tonight and the universal response to this 'Snyder for president?' query is, 'Oh, come on.'"
"By the way, hometown reporters and pundits are the exact people who tend to overhype a candidate's presidential chances -- it's a fun story and everyone wants to play 'expert' on national TV. But that's not happening here.”

Meanwhile, Dennis Lennox, a GOP political consultant and a columnist for The (Mount Pleasant) Morning Sun, has a far more intriguing theory about Snyder’s political calculus.

The governor is appearing at Saturday’s White House dinner as the guest of billionaire former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg. Every presidential candidate these days needs a billionaire to fund his campaign, Lennox noted in this week’s column.

Next, with 19 Republican candidates already in the running, Snyder could possibly use Rule 40 in the RNC handbook to become the kingmaker at the 2016 GOP National Convention, according to Lennox.

Rule 40 states that any candidate for president “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight or more states” before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention.

If Snyder becomes the 20^th candidate and the most wide-open nomination battle in decades unfolds, the type of convention floor fight that hasn’t been seen in six decades could reemerge in 2016.

U.S. News and World Report explains it this way:
“The theory: If no one candidate has secured eight states, it invites a free-for-all without a reason to get out. Conversely, if multiple candidates garner eight victories and accrue hundreds of delegates, each could claim a right to soldier on.  For instance, it isn't inconceivable to think that Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., could dominate the Northeast, with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. performing well in the South and Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wisc,, racking up victories in the Midwest.”

And Rick Snyder controlling the delegates in Michigan plus a few other states. At that point he could tip the scales by urging his delegates to vote for his chosen one on the convention floor. That’s a scenario which could transform Snyder on the national stage into One Smart Nerd.