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State Sen. Jack Brandenburg of Harrison Township has jumped to an early lead to replace retiring Congresswoman Candice Miller in the Republican primary for the 10th Congressional District.
In a three‐way matchup, Brandenburg had 27% of the vote while state Sen. Phil Pavlov of St. Clair and state Rep. Andrea LaFontaine of Columbus Township have 15% apiece in a new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Change Media Group poll. But 43% are still undecided.
The automated phone poll also tested a seven‐way matchup, where Brandenburg (17%), Pavlov (15%) and LaFontaine (12%) were the top three finishers. In that survey question, Brandenburg and Pavlov are in a statistical tie, with LaFontaine not far behind. The other potential candidates tested were: former state senator Alan Sanborn of Richmond Township with 7%; former state representative Pete Lund of Shelby Township with 5%; state Rep. Todd Courser of Lapeer with 3%; and Clinton Township Clerk Kim Meltzer with 2%. In the seven‐way matchup, 41% were undecided.
“Our poll clearly establishes who the three strongest Republican candidates in the M‐10 are today: Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov. But with four in 10 voters undecided, this race is still wide open. There’s a path to victory for any of the top three contenders ‐‐ but there’s still room for other Republicans to mount a strong campaign and emerge victorious on Aug. 2, 2016,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.
The 10th District stretches from Sterling Heights to the tip of the Thumb area, encompassing northern Macomb County and all of St. Clair, Lapeer, Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola counties. IMP rates the district as having a 55.3% GOP base, which is why IMP/Revsix/Change Media Group tested the Republican field.
"This poll clearly demonstrates where this race is headed, as well as identifies the strengths and weaknesses that each of the three top campaigns will have to contend with. The people of the 10th Congressional can expect a very long, drawn out and extremely expensive race to succeed Congresswoman Miller," said Dennis Darnoi, director of analytics and research for Revsix.
In the three‐way matchup, LaFontaine doesn’t have an advantage with female voters over her male counterparts. In fact, 46% of women are undecided vs. 38% of men.
Looking at geography, Brandenburg’s strength comes from his home county of Macomb, while Pavlov does well in his home county of St. Clair, as well as Sanilac County. LaFontaine is strongest in St. Clair County, where most of her state House district lies. In Macomb County, she represents Chesterfield Township and New Baltimore.
In terms of ideology, no one has emerged as the “conservative candidate,” which could be critical in the upcoming GOP primary. All three candidates draw support from all wings of the Republican Party identified by the pollsters -- liberal, moderate, conservative and very conservative.
The pollsters said Sen. Brandenburg seems to be in a strong position, but based on the high levels of support from liberal Republicans all the way to very conservative Republicans, much of that is probably based on name recognition in Macomb, where his Senate district lies entirely within the boundaries of the 10th Congressional District.
“This field has the potential to grow like a Republican presidential primary field. The larger the field grows, the better chance Rep. LaFontaine has of coming out of (the August 2016) primary ‐‐ especially if she is the only woman in the field,” said Amanda Stitt, CEO of Change Media Group.
Revsix is a data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Lansing‐based Change Media Group provides digital consulting to candidates, organizations and businesses. IMP is the most nationally cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.
The automated survey of 467 likely 2016 Republican voters in the 10th District was taken on March 29 and 30. The margin of error is 4.5%.
In a three‐way matchup, Brandenburg had 27% of the vote while state Sen. Phil Pavlov of St. Clair and state Rep. Andrea LaFontaine of Columbus Township have 15% apiece in a new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Change Media Group poll. But 43% are still undecided.
The automated phone poll also tested a seven‐way matchup, where Brandenburg (17%), Pavlov (15%) and LaFontaine (12%) were the top three finishers. In that survey question, Brandenburg and Pavlov are in a statistical tie, with LaFontaine not far behind. The other potential candidates tested were: former state senator Alan Sanborn of Richmond Township with 7%; former state representative Pete Lund of Shelby Township with 5%; state Rep. Todd Courser of Lapeer with 3%; and Clinton Township Clerk Kim Meltzer with 2%. In the seven‐way matchup, 41% were undecided.
“Our poll clearly establishes who the three strongest Republican candidates in the M‐10 are today: Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov. But with four in 10 voters undecided, this race is still wide open. There’s a path to victory for any of the top three contenders ‐‐ but there’s still room for other Republicans to mount a strong campaign and emerge victorious on Aug. 2, 2016,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.
The 10th District stretches from Sterling Heights to the tip of the Thumb area, encompassing northern Macomb County and all of St. Clair, Lapeer, Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola counties. IMP rates the district as having a 55.3% GOP base, which is why IMP/Revsix/Change Media Group tested the Republican field.
"This poll clearly demonstrates where this race is headed, as well as identifies the strengths and weaknesses that each of the three top campaigns will have to contend with. The people of the 10th Congressional can expect a very long, drawn out and extremely expensive race to succeed Congresswoman Miller," said Dennis Darnoi, director of analytics and research for Revsix.
In the three‐way matchup, LaFontaine doesn’t have an advantage with female voters over her male counterparts. In fact, 46% of women are undecided vs. 38% of men.
Looking at geography, Brandenburg’s strength comes from his home county of Macomb, while Pavlov does well in his home county of St. Clair, as well as Sanilac County. LaFontaine is strongest in St. Clair County, where most of her state House district lies. In Macomb County, she represents Chesterfield Township and New Baltimore.
In terms of ideology, no one has emerged as the “conservative candidate,” which could be critical in the upcoming GOP primary. All three candidates draw support from all wings of the Republican Party identified by the pollsters -- liberal, moderate, conservative and very conservative.
The pollsters said Sen. Brandenburg seems to be in a strong position, but based on the high levels of support from liberal Republicans all the way to very conservative Republicans, much of that is probably based on name recognition in Macomb, where his Senate district lies entirely within the boundaries of the 10th Congressional District.
“This field has the potential to grow like a Republican presidential primary field. The larger the field grows, the better chance Rep. LaFontaine has of coming out of (the August 2016) primary ‐‐ especially if she is the only woman in the field,” said Amanda Stitt, CEO of Change Media Group.
Revsix is a data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Lansing‐based Change Media Group provides digital consulting to candidates, organizations and businesses. IMP is the most nationally cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.
The automated survey of 467 likely 2016 Republican voters in the 10th District was taken on March 29 and 30. The margin of error is 4.5%.
Don't forget about crackpot candidate Hawke Fracassa, the anti-law enforcement, homophobic, self-described "attention whore." He knows his race for Warren Mayor is doomed, so watch him to switch over to this race. Mark my words ...
ReplyDeleteWow Brandenburg a drunk who promises tea party peeps to be conservative but then governs like a democrat yeah explains why he is in the lead the gop loves hypocrites. Lafontaine really lol she would actually have to campaign and make appearances Sanborn Who? he is stale and so is lund. Courser keeps proving how he is not a statesman as he bumbles along as state rep worrying about what chair he sits in. Pavlov he is gonna have a tough time getting the macomb gop (democrats) to swing his way. Maybe we will see a non tea party non establishment non divisive non Right winger non liberal big name lame duck type with lots of ties to big money
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