As polarization approaches permanence, both parties are highly unpopular

 

As a new Gallup poll found that both the Republican and Democratic parties have favorable ratings below 40 percent – the first time that has happened since Gallup started polling on this issue in 1992 – it appears that we could be approaching a political world in which polarization becomes permanent.

The frustrated Dan Pfeiffer, who recently left his White House job as a senior adviser, said this in an interview:

“There’s very little we can do to change the Republicans’ political situation because they are worried about a cohort of voters who disagree with most of what the president says. We don’t have the ability to communicate with them — we can’t even break into the tight communication circles to convince them that climate change is real. They are talking to people who agree with them, they are listening to news outlets that reinforce that point of view, and the president is probably the person with the least ability to break into that because of the partisan bias there.”

Of course, the same can be said for congressional Democrats and their core constituencies who inhabit a world wholly closed off from the Republicans at the right of the spectrum.

As for the new polling numbers, Gallup notes that the country is "largely displeased with government's performance and leadership," but that usually means one party or the other bears the brunt of that displeasure more heavily, according to the Washington Post. And for some time, the Democrats' brand was superior to the GOP's. Now? Both are disliked concurrently.

There's also a chicken-and-egg question, The Washington Post explains. Over the recent past, the number of Americans identifying as political independents has increased. Is that a response to displeasure with the parties? Is it a reason people are more willing to express that displeasure?

Of course, independents have emerged as the largest voting bloc, consistently more prominent than loyal Republicans or Democrats, over the past five years. In fact, a September 2014 survey by Gallup found  that 58 percent of voters, and nearly three-fourths of independents, want to an alternative choice, a third party of some kind.
This trend will only grow as Millennials are much more likely to consider themselves independent than the Baby Boomers. Last year, Pew research estimated that 50 percent of the new generation didn't affiliate with a party. As Boomers shift out of the electorate and more Millennials shift in, the Post noted, an independent effect will take hold.

As for the partisan divide in Washington and in the media that is driving all this discontent, Pew has concluded that there’s no easy way out of this.

"When it comes to getting news about politics and government, liberals and conservatives inhabit different worlds," the Pew study concludes. "There is little overlap in the news sources they turn to and trust. And whether discussing politics online or with friends, they are more likely than others to interact with like-minded individuals." 
The danger here is that those independent voters who lean left or right will have no place to go to hear thoughtful discussion about the issues of the day. That could push them into hardened partisan positions and make the country even more polarized.

The lack of overlap in news sources between conservatives and liberals is starkly demonstrated by a Pew graph. A second, interactive graph amply demonstrates how Democrats have moved farther left and Republicans farther right since the watershed election of 1994, making moderates nearly extinct.

The Post’s Chris Cillizza offers these two graphs on his “The Fix” blog and he ponders the future of the deep divide dominating our politics:

“… Is it possible for someone to be elected who can break through across the various, partisan media outlets to speak in a persuasive way to "the other side"? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible -- and, somewhat more hopefully, because the one consistent in politics is change. Simply because something is true today, tomorrow and a year from now doesn't mean it will be true forever.

“But, what's clear is that the ability of a president to persuade is deeply hamstrung by the current political-media climate. That's not to absolve President Obama from some blame. When you run on your ability to change unchangeable things, it's not unreasonable for you to be judged, at least in part, on how and whether you succeed or fail in that regard.

“But, it does suggest deep, structural challenges for Obama and for whoever -- Democrat or Republican -- who follows him into office to become the 45th president of the United States.”