Lions fans who had such high hopes heading into the Green Bay game on Sunday failed to acknowledge one basic fact: Detroit, in retrospect, enjoyed an extraordinarily weak (advantageous) schedule, a 16-game gamut that should have produced better than an 11-5 record.
Stats-crazed fans know all of these numbers better than I do. But here's the key statistic: The Lions' 11 wins came against teams with a combined record of 69-107. And the full picture, despite an outstanding defense, is more discouraging.
The Detroit wins included a victory over Green Bay in September which, after Sunday's sloppy affair, looks more and more like a fluke. And a particularly bad loss came at Carolina, a team that's headed for the playoffs despite a losing record. In addition, one home defeat came against Buffalo, a team with a winning record but no spot in the playoffs.
As a former Lions fanatic (now cynic), I saw signs of irrational exuberance by Detroit supporters throughout December when they exalted over a string of wins over the Vikings, the Bears (twice) and Tampa Bay, the undisputed worst team in the NFL.
The bottom line is that beating teams that were 69-107 is even less impressive than it sounds. And the chances of Detroit beating the Cowboys, a surging 12-4 team, in Dallas on Sunday are nearly nil.
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