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Monday, November 3, 2014
Mich. among 10 races for governor going down to the wire
While we have a barn-burner of an election for governor in Michigan between Rick Snyder and Mark Schauer (the three newest polls have the race essentially tied), it's important to note that Tuesday's election is a political junkie's feast -- not only numerous neck-and-neck races for Senate but also about 10 gubernatorial races that are going down to the wire.
Nate Silver, the superstar election prognosticator, has compiled his outlook for the 36 races for governor on his 538 website. As always, remember that gubernatorial races often have far-reaching impacts on national politics and the shaping of future campaign fields for the presidency.
Here's a portion of what Silver has to say:
"Some of these races, including Alaska and Connecticut, are about as close to true tossups as you can get. In others, one candidate has a slight advantage. Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, who leads by 2 or 3 percentage points in the polling average, is a 76 percent favorite to win re-election. Another Republican, Rick Snyder of Michigan, has a 72 percent chance.
"Charlie Crist of Florida, the former Republican turned Democrat, is just slightly more likely than not to oust Republican Gov. Rick Scott from office. A slightly safer bet for a Democratic pickup is in Kansas, where Paul Davis has a 81 percent chance of beating Republican incumbent Sam Brownback.
"Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate in Massachusetts who famously lost her lead against Republican Scott Brown in a special Senate election in 2010, looks more likely than not to blow a big advantage again; our forecast has Republican Charlie Baker with an 80 percent chance of winning.
"And Democrats hoping for signs that Texas has turned purple will have to hold on for at least two more years. Wendy Davis, far behind in the polls, has only a 0.6 percent chance of beating Republican Greg Abbott."
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