The media obsession over polls was
exposed as a sideshow.
In the end, the 2012 race showed that a composite or
average of all surveys – rather than pouncing on any one poll – is the only
responsible method of reporting on these campaign snapshots.
Certainly, New York Times blogger
Nate Silver’s perfect prediction -- getting all 50 states right by using
probability and statistics -- should cause all political reporters to reassess
their methods.
In addition, partly due to the surprisingly
superior ground game of the Obama campaign, the temptation by the press may be
to conclude that Democratic pollsters are most accurate.
Fordham University graded all the
major polling organizations and found that Public Policy Polling, which had
been derided as a shill for the Democratic Party, was the most accurate.
At the same time, the Rasmussen polling
firm that right-wing talk-radio listeners love, along with the viewers of Fox
News, was an outlier, with Fordham concluding that its unreliability put
Rasmussen at 24th on the list of 28 organizations.
Another troubling sign – Gallup
poll, generally recognized as the wise old veteran of the polling world, ranked
near the bottom. Worse yet, the Associated Press/GfK poll, which is routinely
viewed as objective and reliable by the media, particularly by newspapers,
ranked dead last at 28th.
Perhaps the end result of all this will
be improved methods of polling – and reporting on those surveys – in 2014 and
beyond.
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