Does Obama hold all the cards in game of avoiding fiscal cliff?

As some congressional Democrats raise the prospect of letting the nation go over the fiscal cliff, or at least letting the Bush tax cuts expire, it appears that the left is ready to play with fire.

At The New Republic, Jonathan Cohn suggests going back to the Clinton era tax rates – but in phases. Eliminate the Bush rates for income above $250,000 immediately, but maintain the lower rates for the middle class until the economy improves. Cohn, like some economists, proposes tying rates to the unemployment rate.

For example, middle class and upper middle class income could be taxed at the current rates until the jobless rate falls below 6 percent for four consecutive months.

Meanwhile, Cohn wonders if Republicans are starting to realize that President Obama holds all the cards in this game of fiscal negotiations.

Here’s a portion of what he wrote on his blog:

“On Friday, Obama met with congressional leaders for the first time since his reelection. The subject of discussion was how to handle the tax hikes and automatic spending cuts set to take effect on January 1. House Speaker John Boehner came with a proposal: Instead of racing to craft an alternative package before the new year, Boehner suggested, why not just pass a bill preserving the status quo for six more months, giving everybody a chance to work out a deal?

“But nobody expects Obama to go for it, unless Republicans agree to a deal on taxes that's largely to Obama’s liking. A senior Democratic aide on Capitol Hill thinks he sees a game of Texas hold 'em underway, with Obama winning: 

“’My read is that the Republicans are playing poker with the President. The Republicans know they have a 2-7 unsuited, and the President has pocket aces. The Republicans want to see the flop, and are limping in. But they know the odds are against them. As long as the president doesn’t fold, he wins.’”