Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Independents now rule the American electorate

For all those left- and right-wingers out there who desperately deny the rise of the center, consider this: More Americans now call themselves politically independent than at any time in the last 75 years.

According to the latest Pew Research Center poll, independents are clearly the largest voting bloc in America. The poll discovered that 38 percent of adults call themselves independents. Only 32 percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats and 24 percent labels themselves as Republicans.
The poll is in synch with recent research that shows voters leaving the two parties in droves.

The reason for this rise of the moderates and independents is clear: the survey found that Republicans and Democrats are more polarized than they’ve been in the 25 years that Pew has been questioning voters about their partisan values. Pew also found that the country’s polarization inflated dramatically during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama presidencies.
In 2012, we now have a difference of 18 percentage points between Republicans and Democrats on 48 questions about political values, such as the role of government, environmental protection, business regulations, national security, the “safety net” for the poor, and other issues. That's up from 10 points in 1987 – an 80 percent jump -- when Pew first began its studies on American values a generation ago.



This hyper-partisanship stands in sharp contrast to the stability Pew has found over the years with regard to values differences along on demographic lines -- gender, race, ethnicity, religion, education level, and economic class. Those divisions are smaller and no wider than they have been. Men and women, whites, blacks and Hispanics, the highly religious and the less religious, and those with more and less education differ in many respects. However, these differences have not grown in recent years, and for the most part pale in comparison to the overwhelming partisan divide we see today.
The biggest factor is the increasingly insular parties, who have become smaller and more ideologically strident – a homogeneous element that critics say make the parties seem cult-like. According to Pew’s numbers, the GOP is dominated by self-described conservatives, while growing number of Democrats like the liberal label. Among Republicans, conservatives continue to outnumber moderates by about 2-1. And there are now as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.



Heading into the 2012 elections, Pew found what any moderate or centrist knows is true – this trend is not about some “mushy middle,” it’s about voters who do not strictly adhere to the party line and have varying views on numerous issues.
"Swing voters, who make up about a quarter of all registered voters, are cross-pressured," Pew said. "Their attitudes on the social safety net and immigration are somewhat closer to those of Romney supporters, while they tilt closer to Obama supporters in opinions about labor unions and some social issues."

You can find much more on the subject here.

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