With the Republican Party desperately trying to break the Democrats’ advantage in the Electoral College, the Democratic Party harbors its own set of serious worries for the future.
As I’ve written before, the GOP has come to dominate all of rural America. Within that context, the Republicans also have narrowly supplanted the Dems as the party of white, blue-collar voters.
What’s more, the GOP has established complete domination in presidential elections among white voters overall, as the map above, created by CNN and posted by the folks at Amazing Maps, amply demonstrates.
The fact that this map shows the white vote carrying the
day in key states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin
is worrisome for the Dems. And the Red status among men in liberal strongholds
like California and New York, while not a true threat, should be troubling too.
Obviously, the GOP has its own set of big problems with
black and Hispanic voters. But will these Democratic-leaning blocs turn out in
reliable numbers when the candidate is no longer the first president of color?
We already know they are not enthusiastic voters in off-year congressional
elections.
One more reason that high-tech turnout efforts, as much
as millionaires’ money, will be a key factor in 2016.
The problem is there aren't enough white American males to carry the day for the GOP. Reagan Democrats are more mythical than anything else. Anyone remotely intelligent who is blue-collar and culturally conservative on guns and abortion has been voting Republican--the exception might be for a handful of local officeholders like Mark Hackel in Macomb County--for the last 20 years. One of the most unreported stories are the major woes facing the Democrat coalition between the gentry liberals, who aren't necessarily pro-union, and the ideological hard-left in the union and environmentalist movements. The Democrats have a real patchwork coalition between sexual libertines, environmentalists, racial minorities, unions, gentry liberals, and what remains of their white, working-class mostly Catholic historic base. The interests of African Americans and Hispanics, for example, differ substantially. Many African Americans are against legalizing illegal immigrants because the Hispanics have displaced African Americans, to say nothing of the fact that Hispanics have greater social mobility than African Americans.
ReplyDeleteOkay, Chaaad. You may recall that racism reigns in this country. The Democrats are not likely to have a black presidential candidate, maybe for VP, but not for president. Your thinking is two-dimensional.
ReplyDelete