A country that loses its values, its principles, has lost its heart.
A country that loses its sensible center, its common ground, has lost its mind.

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Stats guru predicts GOP takeover of Senate

Stats guru Nate Silver has weighed in regarding the upcoming Senate races and he sees the Republicans taking control of the upper chamber, with a few caveats.
Appearing on ABC’s “This Week” this morning, Silver, said his calculations show a 60 percent chance of a GOP takeover in the November elections. However, at this early stage in the campaign the Electoral College Wizard warns that his projections are still fluid: the GOP will most likely gain six seats, plus or minus five. That means the GOP picks up anywhere from one to 11 seats.

With 36 Senate seats up for grabs, the Republicans’ magic number is six in order to make Mitch McConnell the Majority Leader. Of course Silver is someone to be reckoned with. In 2012 he correctly predicted the presidential election winner in all 50 states and he went 31 for 33 in Senate races.
In Michigan, Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, forecasts a 45 percent chance that Republican Terri Lynn Land will succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, beating Democratic Congressman Gary Peters. That compares to a 70 percent chance for a GOP gain in Arkansas, 55 percent in Louisiana and a 50-50 situation in North Carolina.

Those prognostications are actually good news for the Democrats, who have a number of Senate members facing re-election in Red States where President Obama is particularly unpopular.
In the newest ABC poll, the incumbent or likely GOP candidate is leading by an average of 12 points in 34 of the 36 states where contests are underway.


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